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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bangkok United defy the odds to beat Buriram United 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Buriram United 3-2 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.19 xG and Buriram United 1.53 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bangkok United beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against Buriram United attack 1.53 / defence 0.66, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 29% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 44%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bangkok United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 62%, Buriram United 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Buriram United's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bangkok United 2.02 PPG, Buriram United 2.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bangkok United win broke the near-deadlock. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights