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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bangkok United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of BG Pathum United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat BG Pathum United 3-0 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.55 xG and BG Pathum United 1.33 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bangkok United beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BG Pathum United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.19 / defence 0.89 against BG Pathum United attack 1.15 / defence 0.78, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 42% | Draw 26% | BG Pathum United 32%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 62%, BG Pathum United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bangkok United 2.14 PPG, BG Pathum United 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bangkok United win broke the near-deadlock. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights