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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bangkok United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Ayutthaya FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Ayutthaya FC 4-1 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.41 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bangkok United beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 43% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 26%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 36%, Ayutthaya FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights