Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Uthai Thani travel to Ayutthaya Province Stadium to take on Ayutthaya FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Ayutthaya FC have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Uthai Thani — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ayutthaya FC 0.90 PPG, Uthai Thani 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ayutthaya FC, 1 for Uthai Thani and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ayutthaya FC trading profile (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Uthai Thani trading profile (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 61% and Uthai Thani 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 48% | Uthai Thani 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.39 xG and Uthai Thani 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 1.005 / defence 1.114 | Uthai Thani attack 1.254 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.091. Uthai Thani have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Ayutthaya FC games / 31 Uthai Thani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 34% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 40%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Uthai Thani 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ayutthaya FC 50% | Uthai Thani 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 34% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.39 / Uthai Thani 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 1.005 / def 1.114 | Uthai Thani attack 1.254 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Uthai Thani xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 34% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (2 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 1W | Draws 0 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
34%
2.94
26%
3.87
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.91
1.52
Uthai Thani xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
7%
13.48
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.52 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 9W 8D 14L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani's form line: 8W 10D 13L from 31 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ayutthaya FC on 1.13 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.81 PPG from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L).
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 5D 8L from 16 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.39 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Uthai Thani in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Uthai Thani's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.81 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 0-1 Uthai Thani.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ayutthaya FC at 69%, Uthai Thani at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ayutthaya FC) and 50% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 62% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.