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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Uthai Thani edge out Ayutthaya FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Ayutthaya FC 0-1 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.56 xG and Uthai Thani 1.62 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ayutthaya FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against Uthai Thani attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 36% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 38%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 62%, Uthai Thani 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 1.31 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights