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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ayutthaya FC defy the odds to beat Rayong FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ayutthaya FC beat Rayong FC 1-0 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.12 xG and Rayong FC 1.71 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayong FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.31 against Rayong FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.91, drawn from 18/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 24% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 51%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Ayutthaya FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 56%, Rayong FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Rayong FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 1.22 PPG, Rayong FC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Rayong FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights