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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Port FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ayutthaya FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Ayutthaya FC 1-4 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 0.77 xG and Port FC 1.73 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.61 / defence 1.45 against Port FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.83, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 14% | Draw 28% | Port FC 58%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 45%, Port FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Port FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights