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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ayutthaya FC and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ayutthaya FC and Muangthong United finished level at 2-2 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.48 xG and Muangthong United 1.55 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Muangthong United attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 34% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 37%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 100%, Muangthong United 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ayutthaya FC scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights