Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ayutthaya FC host Lamphun Warrior at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ayutthaya FC at 0.90 PPG versus Lamphun Warrior's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ayutthaya FC, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 61% and Lamphun Warrior 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 48% | Lamphun Warrior 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.39 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 1.005 / defence 1.112 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.958 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Ayutthaya FC games / 31 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 41% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 31%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 50% | Lamphun Warrior 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 41% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.39 / Lamphun Warrior 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 1.005 / def 1.112 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.958 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Lamphun Warrior xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 41% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (2 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 0W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.60
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.55
1.16
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.16 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 9W 8D 14L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 4W 17D 10L from 31 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ayutthaya FC on 1.13 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.80 PPG from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 7D 6L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.16 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 68%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 10L in their last 31 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Lamphun Warrior's away record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.80 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ayutthaya FC
1
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 2-0 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ayutthaya FC 67%, Lamphun Warrior 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ayutthaya FC) and 40% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 60% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 40% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.