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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.75 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.77 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.43 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.03 / defence 1.43, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 36% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 37%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 67%, Lamphun Warrior 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ayutthaya FC arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights