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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 38%, yet in-form Chonburi FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Chonburi FC travel to Ayutthaya Province Stadium to take on Ayutthaya FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ayutthaya FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chonburi FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chonburi FC are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ayutthaya FC, 1 for Chonburi FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Ayutthaya FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ayutthaya FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 60% versus Chonburi FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 47% | Chonburi FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.43 xG and Chonburi FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.838 / defence 1.250 | Chonburi FC attack 1.042 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Ayutthaya FC games / 30 Chonburi FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 38% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Chonburi FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chonburi FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Ayutthaya FC 50% | Chonburi FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 1W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Ayutthaya FC 2 – 2 Chonburi FC • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Ayutthaya FC 50% / Draw 0% / Chonburi FC 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 38% / draw 30% / away 33% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.76 (52% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 58% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • Chonburi FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W • Ayutthaya FC home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | CS 1 • Chonburi FC away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | CS 0 • Form edge: Chonburi FC lead by 1.10 PPG (1.70 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Ayutthaya FC): Poisson projects 1.43 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.80 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Chonburi FC): Poisson xG of 1.33 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.76 (52% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 58% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Chonburi FC on PPG but Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC higher (38% vs 33% for Chonburi FC) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 38% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.43 / Chonburi FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.838 / def 1.250 | Chonburi FC attack 1.042 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Chonburi FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 38% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC?
• Record (2 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 1W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Ayutthaya FC 2 – 2 Chonburi FC • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Ayutthaya FC 50% / Draw 0% / Chonburi FC 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 38% / draw 30% / away 33% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.76 (52% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 58% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • Chonburi FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W • Ayutthaya FC home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | CS 1 • Chonburi FC away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | CS 0 • Form edge: Chonburi FC lead by 1.10 PPG (1.70 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Ayutthaya FC): Poisson projects 1.43 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.80 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Chonburi FC): Poisson xG of 1.33 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.76 (52% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 58% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Chonburi FC on PPG but Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC higher (38% vs 33% for Chonburi FC) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture