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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ayutthaya FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Ayutthaya FC and Chiangrai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.57 xG and Chiangrai United 1.55 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against Chiangrai United attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 38% | Draw 24% | Chiangrai United 37%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 100%, Chiangrai United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 1.33 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ayutthaya FC managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights