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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ayutthaya FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Ayutthaya FC 1-4 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.17 xG and Buriram United 1.92 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Buriram United outscored their 1.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.19 against Buriram United attack 1.33 / defence 0.89, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 21% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 53%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 80%, Buriram United 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 90%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.

Buriram United's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Ayutthaya FC managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United scored 4 against a 2.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights