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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ayutthaya FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bangkok United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ayutthaya FC beat Bangkok United 3-1 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 0.70 xG and Bangkok United 1.32 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.37 against Bangkok United attack 0.80 / defence 0.60, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 17% | Draw 35% | Bangkok United 48%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Ayutthaya FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 64%, Bangkok United 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.

Bangkok United's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Ayutthaya FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights