🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Grasshoppers defy the odds to beat Yverdon Sport 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grasshoppers beat Yverdon Sport 1-2 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.20 xG and Grasshoppers 1.07 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Grasshoppers outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Grasshoppers attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 38% | Draw 31% | Grasshoppers 31%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Grasshoppers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 56%, Grasshoppers 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Grasshoppers's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.16 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grasshoppers win broke the near-deadlock. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights