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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Yverdon Sport defy the odds to beat FC Zurich 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yverdon Sport beat FC Zurich 3-2 at Stade Municipal, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.16 xG and FC Zurich 1.33 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Yverdon Sport beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against FC Zurich attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 32% | Draw 28% | FC Zurich 40%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Yverdon Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 57%, FC Zurich 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.11 PPG, FC Zurich 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm. FC Zurich (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights