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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Yverdon Sport edge out FC Winterthur 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yverdon Sport beat FC Winterthur 2-1 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.62 xG and FC Winterthur 0.92 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against FC Winterthur attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 54% | Draw 25% | FC Winterthur 21%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 58%, FC Winterthur 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.12 PPG, FC Winterthur 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights