Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC Winterthur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Yverdon Sport welcome FC Winterthur to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport's home record at Stade Municipal: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
FC Winterthur — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Winterthur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Winterthur have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Yverdon Sport) versus 1.40 (FC Winterthur). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Yverdon Sport register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Winterthur in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Yverdon Sport, 0 for FC Winterthur and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Yverdon Sport trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Winterthur trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 73% and FC Winterthur 91% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Yverdon Sport 64% | FC Winterthur 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 2.28 xG and FC Winterthur 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.002 / defence 1.238 | FC Winterthur attack 1.365 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.316. FC Winterthur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Yverdon Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Winterthur have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Yverdon Sport games / 47 FC Winterthur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 41% | Draw 21% | FC Winterthur 38%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.44 | Draw 4.76 | FC Winterthur 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 81% | Total xG 4.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 81% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Yverdon Sport as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.50 combined xG gives a 83% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 81% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 60% | FC Winterthur 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 41% | Draw 21% | FC Winterthur 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 81% | xG Yverdon Sport 2.28 / FC Winterthur 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.002 / def 1.238 | FC Winterthur attack 1.365 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
2.22
FC Winterthur xG
81%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Yverdon Sport 1 - 1 FC Winterthur.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 41% chance of winning, FC Winterthur a 38% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Our model estimates a 81% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur?
Record (1 meetings): Yverdon Sport 0W | Draws 1 | FC Winterthur 0W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. FC Winterthur (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Yverdon Sport's attack at 1.00x the league average against FC Winterthur's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Winterthur's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (6.4%), 1-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
41%
2.46
21%
4.79
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.4%
Home win
1 – 2
6.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
4.50
2.22
FC Winterthur xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
81%
BTTS Yes
1.24
19%
BTTS No
5.20
Clean Sheet
11%
9.23
10%
9.79
Win to Nil
4%
22.70
4%
25.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 2.22 for FC Winterthur, a combined total of 4.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 3D 4L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Winterthur sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Winterthur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.36 PPG, FC Winterthur on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Yverdon Sport's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Winterthur have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Winterthur's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; FC Winterthur are on 2.09 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; FC Winterthur in 91%.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Winterthur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while FC Winterthur have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Winterthur away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Winterthur away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2025, when Yverdon Sport won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting FC Winterthur specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Yverdon Sport
4
Draws
1
FC Winterthur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 2, FC Winterthur have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when FC Winterthur 2-2 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yverdon Sport at 60%, FC Winterthur at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Yverdon Sport and 100% for FC Winterthur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Winterthur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Winterthur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Yverdon Sport's games and 100% of FC Winterthur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 100% of FC Winterthur's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Winterthur in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 12, as Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 2.28 xG and FC Winterthur 2.22 xG, a combined 4.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Yverdon Sport fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Winterthur landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against FC Winterthur attack 1.36 / defence 1.39, drawn from 11/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 41% | Draw 21% | FC Winterthur 38%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 81% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 64%, FC Winterthur 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 82%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
FC Winterthur's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.36 PPG, FC Winterthur 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.