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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Municipal, Relegation Round - 1, as Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.19 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.02 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 39% | Draw 30% | FC ST. Gallen 31%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 58%, FC ST. Gallen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.13 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights