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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Yverdon Sport edge out FC ST. Gallen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yverdon Sport beat FC ST. Gallen 1-0 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.19 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.11 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.77 / defence 0.89 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 36% | Draw 32% | FC ST. Gallen 32%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 57%, FC ST. Gallen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.11 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights