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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Yverdon Sport and FC Sion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yverdon Sport and FC Sion finished level at 1-1 at Stade Municipal, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.51 xG and FC Sion 0.91 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against FC Sion attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 51% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 22%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 47%, FC Sion 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.00 PPG, FC Sion 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights