Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion – Match Report

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Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat Yverdon Sport 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat Yverdon Sport 0-1 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.25 xG and FC Sion 1.12 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Yverdon Sport fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.77 / defence 1.14 against FC Sion attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 37% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 31%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Sion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 41%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Sion's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.00 PPG, FC Sion 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights