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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 26, as Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.29 xG and FC Luzern 1.03 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Luzern outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.76 / defence 0.83 against FC Luzern attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 29% | FC Luzern 29%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 57%, FC Luzern 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

FC Luzern's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.13 PPG, FC Luzern 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights