Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Lausanne travel to Stade Olympique de la Pontaise to take on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have posted 2W 2D 2L at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 1W 0D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.10 PPG, Lausanne 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Lausanne in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lausanne trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 60% and Lausanne 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 80% | Lausanne 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.21 xG and Lausanne 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.682 / defence 1.196 | Lausanne attack 0.884 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.346. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games / 10 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 30% | Draw 29% | Lausanne 40%. Fair-value odds: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Lausanne 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lausanne as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 67% | Lausanne 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Olympique de la Pontaise • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 30% | Draw 29% | Lausanne 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.21 / Lausanne 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.682 / def 1.196 | Lausanne attack 0.884 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Lausanne xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne kick off?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What was the final score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What competition is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne part of?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 30% chance of winning, Lausanne a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne in?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack at 0.68x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
30%
3.31
29%
3.40
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Total xG
2.63
1.42
Lausanne xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.42 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 2D 5L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lausanne sit at 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy on 1.10 PPG, Lausanne on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lausanne have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.30 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lausanne in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home or Lausanne away?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home: 1.00 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when Lausanne won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2
Draws
2
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne?
From 4 meetings on record, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 0, Lausanne have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0-4 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 60%, Lausanne at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 100% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's games and 100% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's matches and 100% of Lausanne's.
Do Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne tend to score early?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Regular Season - 11, as Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.21 xG and Lausanne 1.42 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.68 / defence 1.20 against Lausanne attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 30% | Draw 29% | Lausanne 40%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 80%, Lausanne 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.10 PPG, Lausanne 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.