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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Servette FC and Lausanne share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC and Lausanne finished level at 3-3 at Stade de Genève, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.52 xG and Lausanne 1.27 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Servette FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lausanne outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Lausanne attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 42% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 31%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 53%, Lausanne 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.68 PPG, Lausanne 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights