🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Servette FC and Grasshoppers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 3, as Servette FC and Grasshoppers drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.48 xG and Grasshoppers 1.63 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.27 against Grasshoppers attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 32% | Draw 29% | Grasshoppers 39%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 62%, Grasshoppers 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Grasshoppers's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights