🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Servette FC edge out FC Zurich 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat FC Zurich 2-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.61 xG and FC Zurich 1.31 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against FC Zurich attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 42% | Draw 30% | FC Zurich 29%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 61%, FC Zurich 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.41 PPG, FC Zurich 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights