🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Servette FC and FC Zurich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 20, as Servette FC and FC Zurich drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.75 xG and FC Zurich 1.66 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against FC Zurich attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 41% | Draw 23% | FC Zurich 37%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 63%, FC Zurich 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.46 PPG, FC Zurich 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights