🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Servette FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Winterthur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat FC Winterthur 3-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.92 xG and FC Winterthur 0.91 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Servette FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against FC Winterthur attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 60% | Draw 24% | FC Winterthur 16%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 53%, FC Winterthur 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights