Servette FC vs FC Winterthur – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (1.16) and FC Winterthur's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Winterthur's attack (0.83x) against Servette FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
68%
1.46
19%
5.27
13%
7.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.32
0.95
FC Winterthur xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
7.91
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
9%
10.76
Win to Nil
26%
3.77
1%
85.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs FC Winterthur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Servette FC and FC Winterthur expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Servette FC and 0.95 for FC Winterthur, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs FC Winterthur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.