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Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Servette FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat Servette FC 1-4 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.58 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.20 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 46% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 29%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 62%, FC ST. Gallen 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.62 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights