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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 19, as Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.67 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.07 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 46% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 29%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 54%, FC ST. Gallen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.66 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights