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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Servette FC and FC Luzern share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 5, as Servette FC and FC Luzern drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.32 xG and FC Luzern 1.85 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against FC Luzern attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 27% | Draw 25% | FC Luzern 49%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 61%, FC Luzern 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

FC Luzern's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.56 PPG, FC Luzern 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights