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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Servette FC edge out FC Lugano 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat FC Lugano 2-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.87 xG and FC Lugano 1.63 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against FC Lugano attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 44% | Draw 22% | FC Lugano 34%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 64%, FC Lugano 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

FC Lugano's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.51 PPG, FC Lugano 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights