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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Servette FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Lugano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat FC Lugano 4-1 at Stade de Genève, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.50 xG and FC Lugano 1.11 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Servette FC beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against FC Lugano attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 46% | Draw 27% | FC Lugano 28%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 52%, FC Lugano 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC Lugano's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.64 PPG, FC Lugano 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. FC Lugano (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights