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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Servette FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat Servette FC 0-3 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.76 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.61 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Servette FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Basel 1893 outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 40% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 34%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Basel 1893 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 62%, FC Basel 1893 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.58 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights