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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Servette FC defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat FC Basel 1893 2-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.34 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.61 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.37 / defence 0.84, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 30% | Draw 28% | FC Basel 1893 42%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Servette FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 52%, FC Basel 1893 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.62 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights