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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Servette FC and BSC Young Boys share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC and BSC Young Boys finished level at 4-4 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.78 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.88 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Servette FC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BSC Young Boys outscored their 1.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.27 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 37% | Draw 22% | BSC Young Boys 41%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 65%, BSC Young Boys 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.50 PPG, BSC Young Boys 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights