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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Yverdon Sport.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat Yverdon Sport 4-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.93 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.79 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.79 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 63% | Draw 24% | Yverdon Sport 13%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 57%, Yverdon Sport 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.28 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights