Lausanne 3-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 54%, yet in-form Yverdon Sport provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Yverdon Sport at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lausanne stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuilière: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Lausanne are significantly better at Stade de la Tuilière than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Yverdon Sport are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lausanne have won 0, Yverdon Sport 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 70% and Yverdon Sport 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 65% | Yverdon Sport 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.57 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.759 / defence 0.956 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.715 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.249. Lausanne's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Yverdon Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Lausanne games / 23 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 54% | Draw 25% | Yverdon Sport 20%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Yverdon Sport 5.00. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yverdon Sport (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lausanne 50% | Yverdon Sport 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 54% | Draw 25% | Yverdon Sport 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Lausanne 1.57 / Yverdon Sport 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.759 / def 0.956 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.715 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Yverdon Sport xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Lausanne 3 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport part of?
Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 54% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lausanne and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
Record (2 meetings): Lausanne 0W | Draws 1 | Yverdon Sport 1W.
What form are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport in?
Lausanne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.95
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.43
0.85
Yverdon Sport xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
4%
23.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Lausanne and 0.85 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 7D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yverdon Sport sit at 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 0.96 PPG, Yverdon Sport on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lausanne's home form reads 4W 3D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Yverdon Sport have taken 0.55 points per game from 11 outings (1W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.35 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Yverdon Sport in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Yverdon Sport away?
Lausanne's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.36 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lausanne go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Lausanne
1
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Lausanne 4-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 54%, Yverdon Sport 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lausanne) and 54% (Yverdon Sport).
On the defensive side: Lausanne have failed to score in 27% of games; Yverdon Sport in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lausanne's games and 73% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lausanne's recent games and 54% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat Yverdon Sport 3-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.57 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.85 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.76 / defence 0.96 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.71 / defence 1.35, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 54% | Draw 25% | Yverdon Sport 20%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 65%, Yverdon Sport 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 0.96 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.