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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Servette FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lausanne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat Lausanne 1-3 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 2.61 xG and Servette FC 1.22 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Servette FC outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.36 / defence 0.92 against Servette FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 67% | Draw 17% | Servette FC 16%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Servette FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 60%, Servette FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.35 PPG, Servette FC 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights