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Shock result as Servette FC defy the odds to beat Lausanne 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat Lausanne 0-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.78 xG and Servette FC 1.28 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lausanne fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Servette FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 48% | Draw 25% | Servette FC 26%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Servette FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 57%, Servette FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Servette FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.30 PPG, Servette FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Servette FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights