🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lausanne and Grasshoppers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne and Grasshoppers finished level at 1-1 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.93 xG and Grasshoppers 1.46 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lausanne fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against Grasshoppers attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 49% | Draw 22% | Grasshoppers 29%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 60%, Grasshoppers 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Grasshoppers's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.38 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights