Lausanne 3-0 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs Grasshoppers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Grasshoppers at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lausanne stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuilière: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Grasshoppers have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grasshoppers away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lausanne at 1.10 PPG versus Grasshoppers's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lausanne, 0 for Grasshoppers and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Grasshoppers in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 58% versus Grasshoppers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 56% | Grasshoppers 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.62 xG and Grasshoppers 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.194 / defence 1.138 | Grasshoppers attack 0.779 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.116. Data: 43 Lausanne games / 43 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 52% | Draw 25% | Grasshoppers 23%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Grasshoppers 4.35. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lausanne 50% | Grasshoppers 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 52% | Draw 25% | Grasshoppers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Lausanne 1.62 / Grasshoppers 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.194 / def 1.138 | Grasshoppers attack 0.779 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Grasshoppers xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kick off?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Lausanne 3 - 0 Grasshoppers.
Where is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers part of?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 52% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lausanne and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
Record (2 meetings): Lausanne 1W | Draws 1 | Grasshoppers 0W.
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in?
Lausanne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Grasshoppers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.03
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.61
0.99
Grasshoppers xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
5%
21.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lausanne and 0.99 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne's recent record stands at 14W 14D 20L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grasshoppers, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 25L across 48 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.17 PPG, Grasshoppers on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lausanne have managed 10W 7D 7L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grasshoppers's away record stands at 4W 4D 16L across 24 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.10 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 14W 14D 20L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 13W 10D 25L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Grasshoppers away?
Lausanne's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.54 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lausanne
5
Draws
2
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 3, Grasshoppers have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 54%, Grasshoppers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lausanne) and 42% (Grasshoppers).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Grasshoppers in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Grasshoppers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lausanne's recent matches and 42% of Grasshoppers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lausanne's recent games and 42% of Grasshoppers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Grasshoppers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat Grasshoppers 3-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.62 xG and Grasshoppers 0.99 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grasshoppers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.19 / defence 1.14 against Grasshoppers attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 52% | Draw 25% | Grasshoppers 23%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 56%, Grasshoppers 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.17 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.