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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Zurich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat FC Zurich 3-0 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Relegation Group - 34, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.63 xG and FC Zurich 1.34 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Zurich landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against FC Zurich attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 42% | Draw 29% | FC Zurich 29%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 63%, FC Zurich 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Zurich's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.30 PPG, FC Zurich 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights