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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lausanne edge out FC Winterthur 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat FC Winterthur 2-1 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.95 xG and FC Winterthur 1.31 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against FC Winterthur attack 0.81 / defence 1.33, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 50% | Draw 27% | FC Winterthur 23%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 62%, FC Winterthur 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lausanne arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights