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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lausanne edge out FC Winterthur 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat FC Winterthur 3-2 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.70 xG and FC Winterthur 1.16 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Winterthur outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against FC Winterthur attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 50% | Draw 24% | FC Winterthur 26%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 55%, FC Winterthur 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.39 PPG, FC Winterthur 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights