🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out Lausanne 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 1-2 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.56 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.73 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 34% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 41%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 58%, FC ST. Gallen 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.37 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights