Lausanne 3-4 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host FC ST. Gallen at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Lausanne — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade de la Tuilière — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC ST. Gallen have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC ST. Gallen — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
FC ST. Gallen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Lausanne's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC ST. Gallen have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Lausanne trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 58% versus FC ST. Gallen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 58% | FC ST. Gallen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.75 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.121 / defence 1.027 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.831 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.229. Data: 35 Lausanne games / 35 FC ST. Gallen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 54% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 23%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | FC ST. Gallen 4.35. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC ST. Gallen (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lausanne 40% | FC ST. Gallen 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 54% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Lausanne 1.75 / FC ST. Gallen 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.121 / def 1.027 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.831 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FC ST. Gallen xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Lausanne 3 - 4 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 54% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (4 meetings): Lausanne 0W | Draws 1 | FC ST. Gallen 3W.
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in?
Lausanne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lausanne's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.24
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.79
1.05
FC ST. Gallen xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
4%
25.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.05 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lausanne come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 12D 16L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.50 PPG from 40 outings (17W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.20 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lausanne's home form reads 8W 7D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC ST. Gallen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.60 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Early Season
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 17W 9D 14L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
Lausanne's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.55 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lausanne
2
Draws
7
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 1, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 50%, FC ST. Gallen 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Lausanne and 30% for FC ST. Gallen.
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Lausanne have failed to score in 30% of games; FC ST. Gallen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC ST. Gallen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lausanne's recent matches and 45% of FC ST. Gallen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lausanne's recent games and 30% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC ST. Gallen defy the odds to beat Lausanne 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 3-4 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.75 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.05 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 1.05 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.12 / defence 1.03 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.83 / defence 0.88, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 54% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 23%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC ST. Gallen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 58%, FC ST. Gallen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.20 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.