Lausanne 0-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host FC ST. Gallen at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lausanne — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 4W 3D 2L at Stade de la Tuilière — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lausanne at 1.50 PPG versus FC ST. Gallen's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lausanne register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, FC ST. Gallen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lausanne have won 0, FC ST. Gallen 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lausanne trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 72% and FC ST. Gallen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 72% | FC ST. Gallen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.64 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.938 / defence 0.977 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.907 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.249. Data: 18 Lausanne games / 54 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 50% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 26%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | FC ST. Gallen 3.85. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 67% | FC ST. Gallen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 50% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Lausanne 1.64 / FC ST. Gallen 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.938 / def 0.977 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.907 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC ST. Gallen xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Lausanne 0 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 50% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (2 meetings): Lausanne 0W | Draws 0 | FC ST. Gallen 2W.
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in?
Lausanne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
50%
2.01
25%
4.08
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.75
1.11
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
5%
20.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.11 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lausanne come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 5D 8L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Lausanne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lausanne's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC ST. Gallen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
Lausanne's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.67 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lausanne
2
Draws
7
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 1, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 67%, FC ST. Gallen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lausanne) and 33% (FC ST. Gallen).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC ST. Gallen in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lausanne's games and 56% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lausanne's recent games and 33% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC ST. Gallen defy the odds to beat Lausanne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 0-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.64 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.11 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lausanne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 18/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 50% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 26%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 72%, FC ST. Gallen 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.